Rethinking Arizona

By Lattie Coor

Despite what you might believe as a result of last year’s contentious immigration debate and this month’s horrifying shooting in Tucson, Arizona is not some rogue state populated entirely by crazies. Arizonans, in fact, mostly share the values and aspirations of people in the rest of the country, which is not surprising given that a high proportion of Arizonans have recently migrated from someplace else.


That fact does make the state distinctive, shaped by its rapid growth in recent decades, and the transformation from a sparsely settled frontier state to one of the most urban, diverse and young populations in America today.


I use the term “shaped” loosely, because the most definitive thing you can say about Arizona is that it is still becoming Arizona – this is not one of those states where you can have a historical museum that can provide a narrative with a beginning, a middle, and a conclusion. The Grand Canyon State is still in the middle of its narrative – a fluid, emerging, not-quite formed society.


Consider the oft-surprising basics: Arizona is the second most urban state in the nation, with over 80% of its population living in the Phoenix/Tucson urban corridor. Its growth has been staggering, virtually doubling its population to 6.6 million in the 20 years from 1990 to 2010. Arizona may be a beacon for retirees, but boasts one of the younger populations in the country, ranking 10th highest in the proportion of its population under age 18 (we’re about average for proportion of population above 65).


Much like the Southwest as a whole, the state has become increasingly diverse in the last three decades, with Latinos growing from 16% of the population in 1980 to 30% in 2008.


Youth describes the state’s political and cultural profile even more than its population; it’s important to remember that Arizona was the last of the contiguous 48 states to be admitted to the union, less than a century ago. The large number of military bases built in Arizona during the Second World War and the ensuing Cold War created the foundations of electronic and aeronautic-related industries that would flourish in the 1960’s and 70’s, retaining droves of former GIs and others, as well as firms like Motorola, Intel, Honeywell, General Electric, Raytheon and IBM.


The population explosion that accompanied the state’s post-war economic growth created Greater Phoenix — a megacity of four million people that is larger today than the whole state was just 20 years ago. The bow wave of economic benefit, driven by housing and retail, meant that Arizona never had to grapple with the real question of what it takes to create a sustainable, competitive economy. Many places across the country are forced to make hard choices to sustain or insure modest growth; for most of Arizona’s recent history, growth – and there was never anything modest about it – took care of itself.


Arizona’s prolonged, spectacular growth has given the state’s political system a pass from having to face up to the requirements of a more “real” environment that includes, among other things, a stable and balanced tax structure and an investment strategy to sustain a high-quality, competitive infrastructure, starting with education.


The youth of the state, historically and demographically, also means that we have not yet settled on a dominant political culture. While we might look libertarian and far right to an outsider, we are more accurately described as moderate and center right. Party registration in 2010 is almost evenly divided between Republicans, Democrats and Independents. In the four most recent gubernatorial elections, a Republican won twice, and a Democrat won twice. In the last two election cycles, the House delegation from Arizona has alternated between 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans; and 3 Democrats, 5 Republicans – a voting pattern in these two elections mirroring the national trend.


So, who are we Arizonans, really, and where are we headed?


The Arizona We Want, a survey conducted by the Center for the Future of Arizona and the Gallup organization, took this question up with the people of the state.


Two striking disconnects emerged. First, Arizonans have an extraordinarily high attachment to where they live, but a low sense of connection to one another.


The Gallup Arizona Poll assessed the level of passion and loyalty individuals feel for where they live and found that, on a 5-point scale, 36% of Arizonans ranked their attachment at the highest level. A similar Knight Foundation study of 26 cities across America found that only 25% of respondents ranked their attachment at the highest level.


Yet, even with this high level of attachment, Arizonans have a low sense of connection to one another. In the Gallup Arizona Poll, only 12% said they thought the people in their community cared about each other. A subsequent study by the Center for the Future of Arizona and the National Conference on Citizenship, the Arizona Civic Health Index, ranked Arizona 48th in the nation in terms of whether neighbors exchange favors, and 41st in terms of whether citizens attend meetings about local community issues.


So, state residents identify fiercely with where they live, but not with each other. Explanations for this disconnect include rapid population growth; the newness of the state and the lack of mature social and political traditions; the large self-contained housing developments that tend to isolate people from the rest of the community, and the recreational lifestyle that attracts people looking not only for opportunity but also a new and different way of life. More than any distinction on the left-right scale, there does appear to be some validity to the notion that on the individual-community scale, Arizonans are highly individualistic, as a result perhaps of weaker roots here.


The second disconnect uncovered by The Arizona We Want survey is between Arizonans and the leaders they elect to represent them.


The Gallup Arizona Poll found that only 10% of our citizens said they thought their elected officials were doing a good job. More ominously, only 10% believe their elected officials represent their interests. The Gallup Poll’s findings that Arizonans agree on more than they disagree on a broad array of policy issues further underscores the divide between citizens and elected officials.


The Arizona Civic Health Index suggests that many Arizonans are have little right to complain about politics, since they remain on the sidelines. The state ranks 40th in voter registration rates, and 43rd in voter turnout. Voter turnout is even lower in primary elections, a factor that is particularly significant since most legislative elections in Arizona are determined in the primary.


Yet we shouldn’t pretend that Arizonans’ frustration with politics is a freakish exception to the norm; Arizona’s voter registration rate of 68.9% compares with a national average of 71%. Similarly, Arizona voter turnout of 59.8% in the last presidential election compared with a national average of 63.6%. Arizona has no monopoly on a lack of engagement.


Still, the key challenge for all Arizonans in coming years is to raise our level of engagement with each other, and the community, to match our passionate attachment to this beautiful state.


It hasn’t always been expressed in such terms, but much of the soul-searching in Arizona in recent days has been about this imperative, and about how to accomplish it. It’s soul-searching we should welcome and encourage, and a fitting tribute to the victims of the Tucson nightmare.


Lattie Coor, President-Emeritus of Arizona State University, is the chairman and CEO of the Center for the Future of Arizona (www.ArizonaFuture.org)